Morgan Stanley sends strong signal on SpaceX stock price target

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12, raised $85.7 billion, and watched the stock run to $225 in its first week of trading before it pulled back to $160. Twenty-five days later, the mandatory quiet period for IPO underwriters expired. The analyst notes started landing at dawn on July 7.

By the time US markets opened, six major banks had initiated coverage of SpaceX ($SPCX), every one of them with a buy-equivalent rating. The same morning, SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100. JPMorgan estimates the index inclusion alone sent roughly $4.3 billion in passive buying into the stock.

What Morgan Stanley’s $300 target is actually saying

Adam Jonas, who led the Morgan Stanley coverage, set his base case at $300, representing 87% upside from the July 7 price of $160.42, according to Yahoo Finance. He left room for a $600 bull case. The bear case sits at $75. Morgan Stanley called the range intentionally wide, and it is: a $75 to $600 spread on a single stock is not a forecast, it’s an acknowledgment that nobody really knows.

The thesis is not primarily about rockets. Jonas is betting on vertical integration at a scale that has never been attempted. The note describes SpaceX as one of the few companies that can link orbital real estate, global connectivity, and computing capacity into one infrastructure stack. The word “frontier” in the report’s title refers to AI, not space.

More Elon Musk:

“SpaceX can convert energy into intelligence at scale and monetize it through diverse consumer and enterprise solutions, leading the next era of AI,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, according to Yahoo Finance.

Morgan Stanley also flagged Cursor’s estimated $4 billion in annual recurring revenue as an asset the market is undervaluing. SpaceX acquired Cursor’s parent company Anysphere in a $60 billion deal, as TheStreet reported. On revenue, Jonas projects SpaceX hitting $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040. The company posted $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 at a net loss of $4.94 billion.

Goldman Sachs came in lower and the gap is enormous

Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a $205 target, still a Buy, but the difference in implied valuation between $205 and $300 on a company the size of SpaceX works out to more than $1 trillion. Both men work at firms that underwrote the IPO, Quartz reported, which is worth keeping in mind when reading either note.

Goldman’s projections are aggressive on their own terms. The bank expects SpaceX to double sales this year, reach $352 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, and turn free cash flow positive by 2031. Morgan Stanley’s model doesn’t reach positive free cash flow until 2035. Goldman also projects SpaceX’s AI revenue growing from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, roughly a hundredfold. That depends almost entirely on the February 2026 merger with xAI and on Musk’s ambitions for orbital data centers actually working at commercial scale.

Goldman is bullish, but as TheStreet reported, the bank is clear that SpaceX still needs to scale Starship, prove space-based AI compute, keep Starlink growing, and manage heavy capital needs without reliable positive cash flow. The bull case is big. So is the burden of proof.

On the target ranges alone, even the bears on Wall Street see upside

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Raymond James went to $800 and the rest of the Street piled in

Raymond James opened at $800 with a Strong Buy, calling SpaceX “one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st Century,” according to CNBC. That is the highest target on the street. Citi came in at $200 with a path to $900 or more. UBS set $210, Macquarie $250, Wells Fargo $230, Bank of America $235. LSEG data showed buy and strong buy ratings making up roughly two-thirds of all analyst recommendations on SpaceX by the end of July 7.

SpaceX joining the Nasdaq-100 that same morning added another layer of demand. The company qualified under Nasdaq’s revised fast-track rules, allowing newly listed companies to enter the index after just 15 trading days rather than waiting for the quarterly rebalance, as TheStreet reported. JPMorgan estimates the inclusion pushed $4.3 billion in passive inflows into the stock from funds benchmarked to the index.

What investors need to weigh before acting on any of this

SpaceX is trading at a price-to-sales ratio above 112. The stock has seen double-digit daily swings in multiple sessions since its June debut. Insider lockup expirations and the company’s small public float create near-term volatility risk that no price target fully accounts for. The first major insider sell window opens with second-quarter earnings in August, when 20% of insiders become eligible to sell.

On the target ranges alone, even the bears on Wall Street see upside. The lowest buy-side target, Goldman’s $205, still implies roughly 28% upside from where the stock was trading on July 7. Morgan Stanley’s $300 implies 87%. Raymond James at $800 implies the stock quintuples from here.

Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were lead underwriters on the $85.7 billion IPO. Banks in that position have a financial interest in the stock performing well in the aftermarket. That doesn’t make their analysis wrong, but it is a relevant fact when six buy ratings land on the same morning the quiet period expires.